From Politics to Pricing: Protecting Export Margins in 2026
European exporters have entered 2026 with an added layer of geopolitical risk: a fresh round of US tariff threats explicitly linked to Greenland. According to reporting on 19 January 2026, President Donald Trump repeated his ambition for the United States to gain ownership of Greenland and warned of escalating tariffs on European allies in that context.
For CEOs and CFOs, the point is not the theatre. It is that trade policy is being used as leverage in security and sovereignty disputes, and that raises the probability of abrupt, non-linear changes to market access. That is a very different operating environment from “normal” cyclical demand risk.
The 2026 outlook in one line: modest demand, high policy volatility
Macro conditions in Europe look relatively stable but subdued. The OECD expects euro area growth around 1.2% in 2026, a “steady-but-not-strong” backdrop. The ECB’s latest projections also point to slower growth in euro area foreign demand in 2026 versus 2025, consistent with softer global trade momentum.
In other words: even if your end-markets are holding up, trade friction can erase margin faster than volume can replace it.
What tariffs could mean in practice
The immediate commercial risk is not simply “a tariff”. It is the chain reaction that follows:
Margin shock: sudden duties land in the wrong place in your P&L (or your distributor’s), creating a scramble for price rises, rebates, or re-negotiations.
Demand distortion: US buyers pull orders forward ahead of tariff deadlines, then go quiet after implementation, creating false signals in S&OP and cash planning.
Retaliation and escalation: European officials have publicly discussed options ranging from a large counter-tariff package to use of the EU “anti-coercion” instrument.
A CFO-grade action plan for exporters in Q1 2026
If you export to the US directly or indirectly (via EU customers who re-export), treat this as a board-level risk sprint. Four moves matter most.
1) Quantify exposure properly (not just by customer).
Build a tariff sensitivity view by:
HS code and product family
Country of origin and rules of origin (where a reclassification or minor processing change might not help)
Incoterms and who is the importer of record
Contract term and price-adjustment clauses
2) Re-price with discipline, not panic.
Create a “pricing corridor” per product line that links:
landed cost scenarios (base, +10%, +25% duty, plus logistics variance)
target contribution margin by channel
competitive anchor prices in the US market
Then decide, in advance, what you will pass through, what you will absorb, and what you will redesign (spec, pack sizes, service levels).
3) Re-engineer your route-to-market, not just your shipments.
If the US is strategic, consider structural options:
dual sourcing or final assembly in a tariff-friendlier location
shifting to local fulfilment (3PL) to improve service and reduce disruption
revisiting distributor economics so your partner can still sell profitably under higher duties
4) Tighten cash and risk controls.
Tariff volatility is a working capital story:
refresh FX hedging assumptions (pricing and collections timing)
stress-test receivables and credit insurance limits by US buyer segment
update force majeure and “change in law” language for new contracts
The strategic takeaway
2026 is not automatically a bad year for European exporters. Demand may be modest but not collapsing. The real risk is governance: companies that treat tariffs as a once-off external shock will keep getting surprised.
The winners will run a standing “trade volatility playbook” with pre-approved moves on pricing, Incoterms, origin strategy, and customer communication. If you do that, you can protect margin while competitors are still arguing about whose problem the duty is.
About OpenVentures Consulting
OpenVentures Consulting helps SMEs and scale-ups grow internationally through practical export strategy, market entry support, and strategic partner selection. Led by Suzanne Flood, we bring 25 years’ experience across Europe, MENA, North America, and Asia-Pacific, working with businesses and organisations to navigate new markets, regulations, and cross-border sales. We specialise in export strategy and execution, market research and competitive analysis, partner matchmaking, trade compliance, and international business development, with a focus on sustainable, long-term growth.
If you are planning expansion into new markets or need the right partners to scale, get in touch at sales@openventuresconsulting.com or visit openventuresconsulting.com.